USD index slides 10% YTD, eyes key economic data & J. Powell speech

• USD Index down 10% YTD, near July 2023 levels
• Bounced off April 2022 support, signaling strong bearish momentum
• Range-bound movement, with US-China trade talks in focus
• Key data ahead: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Powell speech
• Watch levels: Resistance at 100.00–102.82, support at 99.32 & 97.77

Did you know that the USD Index has plunged over 10%, year-to-date?

The US Dollar Index (USDInd) is currently trading at levels not seen since July 2023, reflecting sustained bearish momentum since its swing high on January 13, 2025.

Notably, the Index recently bounced off support levels last touched in April 2022, highlighting the depth of its recent decline.

For now, the USDInd remains confined to a narrow three-day range, with market participants eyeing emerging signs that the United States and China may be inching closer to resuming trade negotiations—an event that could shift the trajectory of the Index.

Adding to the potential for heightened volatility, today’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact releases, including US Retail Sales, Industrial Production figures, and a much-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

These developments could serve as key catalysts for the next move in the USDInd.

The USD Index bulls may look to the following potential resistance levels in if the index rallies.

• 100.000 – Psychologically important round number level which coincides with the 423.6 fibonnaci level
• 100.184 – Upper bound resistance of the current range.
• 101.888 – Significant price level
• 102.821 – 21-day simple moving average

The USDInd bears however may pay attention to the following potential support levels

• 99.320 – Lower bound support area of the current range
• 97.776 – Significant price level