This week’s releases of the FOMC minutes, PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), and Nvidia earnings could determine whether the US exceptionalism story faces further erosion, leaving the US dollar index (USDInd), US500 index, and Nvidia stocks exposed.
These major events come on the back of risk appetite being bruised by rising US fiscal deficit concerns due to President Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill (read: tax cuts) and Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Also, keep an eye on the latest developments surrounding global trade and geopolitical tensions.
The FOMC Minutes will be closely watched for any hawkish signals which could strengthen the US dollar. A tone suggesting higher-for-longer rates may potentially push USDInd towards 21-day SMA. Conversely a dovish tilt might trigger a further pullback towards year-to-date lows around 98.0.
Nvidia’s stock is expected to swing 6.79% up/down following the release of its Q1 FY2026 earnings report. Despite the analysts’ expectations of a rise in both revenue and earnings per share, investors are likely to focus on Nvidia’s challenges stemming from reduced business in China and its forward-looking guidance on navigating these headwinds.
Investors will be closely watching the release of the US PCE reading – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – for signs of continued pricing pressures. A hotter-than-expected reading could alter the rate cuts’ trajectory, potentially pushing US500 lower to test its 21-day SMA for support. Conversely, a softer print may boost risk sentiment, supporting US500’s rebound to 6 000.
Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
Monday, May 26
Tuesday, May 27
Wednesday, May 28
Thursday, May 29
Friday, May 30
Saturday, May 31
Sunday, June 1
