After hitting multi-year lows in April, BRN staged a moderate rebound, yet the market remains in a precarious balance of geopolitical risks and fundamental shifts.
The spotlight is on the ongoing US–Iran nuclear negotiations, which could eventually allow Iranian crude back into the global supply chain – a move that would likely weigh on prices.
However, this scenario remains uncertain, especially with reports of possible Israel–Iran escalation. Such a development would raise geopolitical risk premiums and potentially ignite a spike in prices.
Meanwhile, OPEC is back in the headlines. Sources suggest the cartel is considering a sizable output hike of 411,000 barrels/day for July 2025 – triple the initial proposal of 137,000 bpd.
This decision may be taken during June 1 meeting and could reshape short-term supply dynamics and price xpectations.
From a technical lens, BRN is showing a bearish trend as the price remains at the 21-day, but below both 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. This alignment confirms sustained downward pressure.
The RSI at 45.34 indicates weak momentum, and the MACD remains below the signal line, suggesting continued bearish sentiment.
